ORIGINAL PAPER
The impact of migration on demographic structure and security in Germany
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Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland
Online publication date: 2025-10-23
Publication date: 2025-10-23
NSZ 2025;20(3):25-44
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
Research objectives and hypothesis/research questions:
The article addresses the research problem: what impact does migration have on demographic structure of Germany, and how can national security be maintained in this context? The aim of the study is to conduct a multidimensional comparative analysis of the impact of migration on demographic structure of Germany and security. The study hypothesizes that migrants positively influence the country’s demographic struc¬ture by mitigating unfavorable trends related to population aging and the negative birth-death gap, thus ensuring national security by increasing national income and securing the workforce.
Research methods:
The research method applied in the elaboration is source analysis, including inference techniques.
Main results:
The study indicates that the largest age groups in Germany are those between approximately 50 and 70 years old, meaning that a significant portion of the population is approaching or has already been in retirement age. The difference between births and deaths was negative during the period under study and worsened year by year: from -212,428 in 2020 to a record -335,217 in 2023. A slight improvement was noted in 2024 (-330,641), but the demographic imbalance was still incredibly significant. Between 2018 and 2024, Germany recorded a significant influx of migrants, totaling over 3.8 million during that period. The vast majority of migrants were young people, primarily aged 15 to 40, with a significant concentration in the 20-35 age group. Such an age distribution brings many potential benefits and is a principal factor in stabilizing the aging population, low fertility and labour shortages, and thus affects the security of the state.
Implications for theory and practice:
Migration policy in Germany should be far-reaching, flexible, controlled, and sustainable. It is not about unconditional “opening of borders”, but about pursuing a wise, realistic, and long-term strategy that combines humanitarian aid with the interests of the state and society. Criticism should not be directed at the concept of migration itself, but rather at its specific flaws and shortcomings, which can and should be addressed.
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